Columbia, South Carolina (CNN) -- Newt Gingrich has pulled a Double Lazarus, coming back from the dead twice in this campaign to win decisively in South Carolina.Exit polls showed a broad and deep victory in this conservative state, with Newt winning tea partiers and evangelicals -- as well as both men and women. Interestingly, Newt won voters who said the economy was the number one issue as well as people who said their priority was defeating President Barack Obama in November.
This not only turns the Romney campaign's electability narrative on its head, it's got to be making the Obama camp in Chicago smile, looking at a long GOP nomination fight ahead.
Mitt Romney's sole strong suits were people making over $200,000, moderates and non-tea partiers, making him look like Jon Huntsman in this primary state. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement did not have the impact that was projected -- pulling back the curtain on her 34% in-state approval rating despite her rising national profile.
At the Romney HQ, the atmosphere was like someone died before a big party, but the caterers still arrived, standing glumly behind the cash bar.
Supporters on bleachers behind the podium were prompted to chant "Florida! Florida!" as a way of pivoting attention forward from the debacle that was unfolding as Newt was declared the early winner.
The state of the race has fundamentally changed in the course of one dizzying week. The inevitability narrative that surrounded Mitt Romney -- along with the claim that he was the only GOP candidate to ever win both Iowa and New Hampshire consecutively -- has collapsed. Rick Santorum was belatedly declared the real winner of Iowa on Thursday morning and that same day Rick Perry dropped out of the race and immediately endorsed Newt Gingrich.
Over the course of two contentious debates, Romney was hammered on his failure to release his taxes, the revelation that he pays a 15% rate and reports that he has accounts in the Cayman Islands. The result was a stunning reversal of fortune, from 10 percentage points up in the polls a week ago to a double-digit loss on primary day.
Gingrich revived his campaign with pugnacious debate performances punctuated with deep policy knowledge. Two-thirds of voters said the debates had helped determine their vote and not surprisingly those voters mostly cast their ballot for Gingrich.
In addition, Team Newt's ever-present attack on Mitt Romney as a "Massachusetts Moderate" seemed to have special resonance south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Two quick notes on the other two candidates: Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. Days after New Hampshire, a meeting of evangelical big-wigs at a Texas ranch resulted in a broad-based endorsement of Rick Santorum -- but the religious right's benediction failed to create a surge of support for Santorum even in this stereotypically religious and socially conservative state.
That should call into the question the real influence the religious right's self-appointed leaders actually have in the Republican electorate.
Ron Paul had a strong showing in a state where conventional wisdom stated that his libertarian beliefs would fail to attract broad-based support because of the evangelicals' disproportionate influence.
I spoke to several voters who had cast ballots for Ron Paul, ranging from fiscal conservatives who leaned libertarian on social issues to Democrats who voted for Paul in this open primary because they agreed with his views on civil liberties and non-interventionist foreign policy.
In his concession speech, Romney started by recycling lines from his New Hampshire victory, but delivered in a very different tone. His attacks on President Obama were now balanced by indirect hits on Newt, trying to tie him to what was styled as Democratic-oriented attacks on free market capitalism. This primary fight is getting personal.
The big picture takeaway: Florida is now set up to be the tie-breaker -- its traditional role in the January gauntlet. A different candidate has won each of the three primary contests to date, reminding Republicans and political observers to call off the coronation and give the people a chance to vote.
We are looking at a long-primary fight now -- almost certain to extend through Super Tuesday in early March. All of this is good in my book -- the more voters who have a say in picking the Republican nominee, the better the democratic process is served.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/21/opinion/avlon-romney-stumble/index.html
Questions:
1.) Do you believe that Romney will be able to regain momentum in Florida.
2.) Does it seem like the race has become solely between Gingrich and Romney, or does the race now have a larger spectrum?
3.) How does the GOP struggle affect the race of Barack Obama?
This not only turns the Romney campaign's electability narrative on its head, it's got to be making the Obama camp in Chicago smile, looking at a long GOP nomination fight ahead.
Mitt Romney's sole strong suits were people making over $200,000, moderates and non-tea partiers, making him look like Jon Huntsman in this primary state. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement did not have the impact that was projected -- pulling back the curtain on her 34% in-state approval rating despite her rising national profile.
At the Romney HQ, the atmosphere was like someone died before a big party, but the caterers still arrived, standing glumly behind the cash bar.
Supporters on bleachers behind the podium were prompted to chant "Florida! Florida!" as a way of pivoting attention forward from the debacle that was unfolding as Newt was declared the early winner.
The state of the race has fundamentally changed in the course of one dizzying week. The inevitability narrative that surrounded Mitt Romney -- along with the claim that he was the only GOP candidate to ever win both Iowa and New Hampshire consecutively -- has collapsed. Rick Santorum was belatedly declared the real winner of Iowa on Thursday morning and that same day Rick Perry dropped out of the race and immediately endorsed Newt Gingrich.
Over the course of two contentious debates, Romney was hammered on his failure to release his taxes, the revelation that he pays a 15% rate and reports that he has accounts in the Cayman Islands. The result was a stunning reversal of fortune, from 10 percentage points up in the polls a week ago to a double-digit loss on primary day.
Gingrich revived his campaign with pugnacious debate performances punctuated with deep policy knowledge. Two-thirds of voters said the debates had helped determine their vote and not surprisingly those voters mostly cast their ballot for Gingrich.
In addition, Team Newt's ever-present attack on Mitt Romney as a "Massachusetts Moderate" seemed to have special resonance south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Two quick notes on the other two candidates: Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. Days after New Hampshire, a meeting of evangelical big-wigs at a Texas ranch resulted in a broad-based endorsement of Rick Santorum -- but the religious right's benediction failed to create a surge of support for Santorum even in this stereotypically religious and socially conservative state.
That should call into the question the real influence the religious right's self-appointed leaders actually have in the Republican electorate.
Ron Paul had a strong showing in a state where conventional wisdom stated that his libertarian beliefs would fail to attract broad-based support because of the evangelicals' disproportionate influence.
I spoke to several voters who had cast ballots for Ron Paul, ranging from fiscal conservatives who leaned libertarian on social issues to Democrats who voted for Paul in this open primary because they agreed with his views on civil liberties and non-interventionist foreign policy.
In his concession speech, Romney started by recycling lines from his New Hampshire victory, but delivered in a very different tone. His attacks on President Obama were now balanced by indirect hits on Newt, trying to tie him to what was styled as Democratic-oriented attacks on free market capitalism. This primary fight is getting personal.
The big picture takeaway: Florida is now set up to be the tie-breaker -- its traditional role in the January gauntlet. A different candidate has won each of the three primary contests to date, reminding Republicans and political observers to call off the coronation and give the people a chance to vote.
We are looking at a long-primary fight now -- almost certain to extend through Super Tuesday in early March. All of this is good in my book -- the more voters who have a say in picking the Republican nominee, the better the democratic process is served.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/21/opinion/avlon-romney-stumble/index.html
Questions:
1.) Do you believe that Romney will be able to regain momentum in Florida.
2.) Does it seem like the race has become solely between Gingrich and Romney, or does the race now have a larger spectrum?
3.) How does the GOP struggle affect the race of Barack Obama?
16 comments:
I think Romney will try as hard as he can to regain momentum in Florida. These primaries have shown him and his team that they cannot underestimate the candidates or think that Romney has it in the bag. These setbacks will only cause Romney to work that much harder to win back the Republican votes that are currently going to Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Romney will be able to re-evaluate his campaign and improve it to attract more people. On the other hand, he may be discouraged and give up, but I do not think that that is going to happen. I believe the race has a larger spectrum now. People are not viewing Romney as the overall winner yet, as it shows in the polls. They are instead branching out to other candidates like Santorum and Gingrich. Ultimately, I believe that Romney will eventually win because he has been around the longest and has held a pretty steady amount of support since the very beginning. On the other hand it does not help that Perry is now supporting Gingrich. that just brings a bigger challenge to Romney. The GOP struggle definitely affects the race for Obama. The Republican candidates are fighting against each other and members of the party are split in their support. This is basically a dream come true for Obama and his campaigning team because they are able to use this chaos to their advantage. With the Republicans split and only focusing on which candidate to run instead of joining together and focusing on beating Obama, Obama is able to have the upper hand. This struggle will enable him to work on campaigning for himself instead of bashing the other presidential candidate, the Republican candidates are already doing that for him.
I do believe Romney will regain his popularity and momentum because he has been consistant throughout the entire race, whereas Gingrich first came out of nowhere in the race, was suppoesedly well favored then people did not care as much for him and now they like him again. At least with Romney, he has showed more consistancy than any other candidate for the race. The race does seem like it will come down to Gingrich and Romney, especially now that Perry dropped out and Paul and Santorum do not have as much popularity compared to Gingrich and Romney. Honestly, the GOP is affecting Obama's campaign in a positive way, because the Republican candidates are basically just trying to slaughter eachother to make themselves look better, which for me just makes them look petty. They are all trying to accomplish the same goal and if the Republican candidates acted a little more civil toward one another, the Republican citizens would be more concisive with their decision in who they want to run against Obama, and win.
I think Romney will regain support because before the primaries began he was the only candidate who had consistant support. Since the primary election I think his support in the primary seaon may cause many people will turn to bach Romney in order to end the primaries as soon as possible and start campaigning with one candidate to beat Obama. However, I think it will need to take a lot of effect from Romney and his staff. I do think their is a larger spectrum now because their are three possible candidates who could win the nomination and all are continuing to gain support as the primary season goes on. Also I think people are opening up more options and considering all possiblities because their main goal in November is to beat Obama instead of looking at the candidates opinions on certain issues. Right now their are four possible people who could run against him and I think many people are unsure of who could make that happen causing them to change the person they support. Their concern about losing to Obama is causing people change their minds about a certain candidate causing people to be unable make a decision. The GOP struggle is definately affecting the race for Obama. As each candidate gets closer to the nomination the Republican party is becoming more seperation within the party making it harder for all the Republicans to come together in November and support one candidate and win the presidency. It is also allowing less time for them to campaign before the election. Where as Obama is already planning and preparing for the following months before the election.
I think that Romney will definitely be able to gain momentum if he keeps working. Like Katie said, he could just give up now, but I think that he will use the South Carolina loss as a reevaluation of his campaign agenda. Since he's been most known and in the running for the longest, I feel that he is perfectly capable of getting over this little speed bump in his campaign and gain more supporters. I think that the Republican race definitely has a larger spectrum beyond Romney and Gingrich. I think that voters are so caught up with defeating Obama that they keep changing their minds after seeing more that each candidate has to bring to the table. These primaries are crucial for the Republican candidates because the people have not yet seemed to commit to one candidate. This race has been extremely unpredictable, like Gingrich for example. He literally came out of nowhere and just won the South Carolina Primary. That just goes to show that anything can happen and that it truly is going to be a long, long battle. I think that the GOP race positively affects President Obama's race. There have been many events where the republican party just looked absolutely horrible, which made Obama look great. People are concerned about getting Obama out of office, but they don't think that there is a strong enough Republican candidate to lead this country out of the debt and everything else. The inconsistency is makes the GOP look extremely unorganized. It's tough to say what will happen at this point. I just pray to the Heavens above that one of the candidates really prove that they are capable of being a strong national leader, because Obama needs to get out.
(I thought I'd end on a borderline dramatic note)
I do think that it is possible for Romney to regain support and momentum in Florida. His name has been popular and recognizable since the beginning of the race, unlike some of the other Republican candidates, and he is definitely the most consistent. Like Katie said, I think that Romney may have underestimated his opponents because for a while it seemed that he had it in the bag. Now that Gingrich has gained more support, you never really know what could happen but I still think that Romney is going to get the nomination.
I do think that the race is between Romney and Gingrich. Although Rick Santorum was actually the winner in Iowa, I think that’s as far as he is going to get. I haven’t heard much about him over the past few weeks and I think that it’s really between Romney and Gingrich, especially because Gingrich has been gaining more support. Once again, I think that Romney will end up getting the nomination but you never know.
With no clear idea of who the Republican candidate is going to be, Barack Obama has a better shot at winning reelection. The GOP struggle is really good for Obama and makes his chance at being elected much greater. The Republican Party can’t come to a decision about who their representative will be which is splitting their party up and it will probably end up resulting in Obama winning the race. They really need to decide on a candidate and focus there campaign efforts against the Democratic Party if they want to win the White House in November.
I also think that Romeny will wo whatever he can to regain momentum in Florida. He has already been starting to be tougher and more determined in his campaign and shows that he is willing to put up a fight. Previously, many thought that Romney was almost gauranteed to win but it has been made clear that there is some competition. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in particular are his to toughest competitors. I think Mit knows that he has to bring everything to the table and give it his all to win Florida and I believe he will do just that. I feel like the race is not only Gingrich and ROmney, but Santorum as well. I think those three are all in this race, but not so much Ron Paul. I feel like he Republican sturggle will affect the race with Obama in a negative way because Republicans are getting to seperated in a way and are too focused on who will be the Republican nominee whereas Obama is concentrating on what he needs to do to win. With the Republicans not focusing on simply having their party beat Obama and rather, breaking apart to try and get the nominee that fits each own persons views best, Obama will only have advantages from the chaotic Republican nomination. The Republicans need to stop attacking eachother to see who will look the best and should concentrate on which will beat Obama and go with it. I personally believe it will be Romney since he shows the most consistency and seems to be a very good candidate who could challenge Obama in debates.
Oh boy this article is upsetting. With all these different candidates winning the different states it is creating harder times for the Republican Party. I do believe that Romney will regain his momentum in Florida or try as hard as he possibly can. I think that he has held the lead for so long, that he might not have been trying that hard for thinking that he was already going to win. I think in a way this could be a wakeup call to Romney to work a little harder. I believe he will still be the Republican candidate against Obama and this setback is going to help him learn how to fight and prosper. As for Newt, I really don’t think he has that great of a chance. All Romney needs to do is look over his campaign and adjust a few things and show a bit more effort. It sounds easy, but as we all know it is not. What upsets me is how happy this is making the Obama. Through the Republicans fighting he can make easier attacks and poke fun at the party for not being able to agree. It looks pretty back when Republicans are fighting each other, instead of working to take on the bigger obstacle, Obama. This makes people wonder if the Republicans are indecisive, can they make decisions, and what does them fighting portray them as? I agree with Emily when she says that the Republicans just want a person to beat Obama, not a specific person. But to show that this is true, they need to get their stuff together. Yes Republicans will vote for whoever their candidate is come November. However, that person needs to be persuasive and able to take on Obama. I think the only chance the party has is with Romney so hopefully he will receive the nomination. From here all we can do is watch, wait, and see.
I personally feel like Romney will not be able to regain momentum in Florida UNLESS he changes his attitude more on how he will benefit the nation and less on taking down Newt. I think it is upsetting how he is completely bashing somebody on his side of the race, and it is not working in his favor. However I think that if Mitt does clean up his act by Florida then he definitely has the nomination. His name is best known, his support rock solid, and has had the most organized and steady campaign since the very beginning.
I definitely do not think that this race is just down to these two men though. Come on guys, we all know that Ron Paul is gonna make a sneak attack and take Florida! He is an equally as strong candidate as Romney, and I think an even better candidate than Newt, so we can't vote him out! I actually think that Ron Paul has a big chance of winning the presidency if we wins the GOP because of some of his libertarian views. He can relate to both democrats and republicans, which is what we currently need to beat Obama. So don't count my man Ronnie out of the race yet!
Basically, Romney or Ron Paul should be our candidate. They can get some liberals to back them up, and Republicans will support any Republican in the race. So Romney, stop being a jerk and start getting people pumped up, and you have this GOP in the bag.
Now if we don't decide that Romney is the best choice and back him up soon, Obama will definitely take more advantage. Republicans look fickle, untrusting, and stupid for not picking a candidate. Everyone just needs to get behind one candidate, vote, and beat Obama before its too late.
In regards to the primary in Florida I still believe that Romney will end up winning. Even though it may seem like Romney has been losing momentum I believe that this momentum will kick back up in Florida. For one thing Romney had been the one candidate who has been consistent throughout the whole campaign process. He has been the one republican candidate who has been steady throughout the race and that is what many people look for. Also another important point that I think will help Romney win is the idea that is Romney doesn’t go up against Obama, then Obama will end up winning the presidency. Many people are just voting for Romney so that Obama won’t be elected for another term of presidency. I believe that this race definitely has a wider spectrum then it once had before. In my opinion, I think that Romney is a definite contender but for the other presidential candidate I am not even sure anymore. It seems like every week something radical happens and a different candidate comes shining through the spot light. Romney seems to be set in stone, but as for the other candidates they seem very unpredictable. The GOP’s struggle is affecting Obama in a good way. All of these different candidates are, in a way, tearing the Republican Party in different directions. They are splitting the votes. Also many people believe that if Romney doesn’t become the candidate for the general election then Obama is definitely going to win. This is exactly what Obama is hoping for. The sad thing is the Republican Party is only making it harder on themselves, and Obama is just sitting on the sidelines letting them do the work for him.
I think that it is impossible to know whether or not Romney will be able to pull ahead of Gingrich in Florida. First of all, seeing the results of the other primaries, you can see how divided the Republicans are. No one is able to agree anymore and that is upsetting because this will just lower the chances for them to have a good chance at beating Obama. There is obviously more to the race than Gingrich and Romney. No one is just thinking about the candidate anymore. The only things that matter to them is that a) they can be a good president but also b) are they able to beat Obama. Personally, I favor Mitt Romney because of the fact that he has always been consistent in his policies and that he appears competent in his earlier political history. However, other may disagree and that is where the Republicans are split. This GOP struggle has made the race for the White House so much easier for Obama. All he has to do is wait for the Republican candidates to finish ripping each other to shreds and then come in with his own attacks. After that candidate had already been attacked by his own party, Obama will be able to easily make himself look like the more desirable candidate. I think that it would be better if the GOP didn't endorse campaigning and only had a month or two for all of the primaries. That would limit all of the smear campaigns (I would hope) and allow the GOP to get a head start on fundraising for their REAL candidate.
I think that Romney will be able to regain his momentum in Florida. Even if he ended up losing in Iowa, it was still by less than 100 votes, which is extremely close. Romney has been consistent since he first decided he was running. While Rick was popular for a short time during the Iowa Caucus and Newt was popular in mid-December and obviously in South Carolina, Mitt has been a frontrunner since the beginning. I do think that the race has narrowed down to Romney and Gingrich. I actually think the race is just Romney against random people who appear and disappear. Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul don't stand a chance against Romney. However, I do think there's a chance that someone new may suddenly join the race. The GOP race has really disappointed me this year. I don't truly like or agree completely with any one candidate. What bothers me the most is that the candidates are more focused on mudslinging at each other than at the person who should be their real target, Obama. By bringing down each other, they are actually just hurting the Republican party and helping Obama to win reelection.
This article really shows the state of panic the Republican Party is in at the moment due to the lack of unified support for a single candidate. I am not sure if Romney will be able to regain momentum in Florida because of Gingrich’s growing support in the southern states, but I hope for the sake of the Republican Party that Romney wins Florida because I do not think that Gingrich has a chance of defeating Obama. To me, it does seem like the race has become solely between Gingrich and Romney because their campaigns are the most publicized. I think that Santorum and Ron Paul both lack the public support that Romney and Gingrich has gained throughout the primary season so far. Although I feel that the Republican nominee will be either Gingrich or Romney, the presence of Rick Santorum and Ron Paul further divides the Republican Party much like the way third party candidates can take away popular votes from mainstream candidates in presidential elections. The GOP struggle affects the race of Barack Obama by helping him gain popularity and making the Democratic Party seem more put together and stable than the Republicans. Undecided voters will probably be more attracted to the Democratic Party due to the current divided and weak state of the Republican Party. While the Republicans work to unite their party and fuel support for a single candidate, Barack Obama could quietly gain support which may force the Republican candidate, whoever it may be, to play catch-up as November draws nearer.
I think there are many factors that could go in favor of Mitt Romney and his momentum in Florida. I do believe that he is the only Republican candidate who has had constant support and acknowledgement of the Republican party from the beginning. He was the original candidate, up against Perry, who was predicted to win the Republican nomination. I also think that in order for Mitt Romney to win the Republican nomination he will need to step up his game in the next few months and be on top of the ball as interviews, debates, and political events occur. He must show nothing less than his best to earn the nomination. He has many setbacks which may have invigorated him even more to win against the new guys, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Another thing going for Romney is he has had time to develop his image and campaign in regards to public opinion. I think that the race has now just expanded to a larger spectrum. Each candidate having their shinning qualities but also holding their worst offenses. The public seems to be split between the men as Romney has been pulled though over the months, Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus, and Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary. There seems to me that there is no one, clear candidate who will prevail over the others. Obama's campaign team is probably rejoicing over this struggle for the Republicans because it means that Obama has that advantage while the other party is in chaos. Obama has all attention focused on him while the Republican party must split their focus on three different men before then even decided who will run against Obama.
As of right now, I'm unsure whether or not Romney will be able to regain momentum in Florida especially since Gingrich and Santorum have come into the picture. Because of this, there definitely is a larger spectrum that has developed. Before the primaries, Romney seemed to be the all-around favorite and clear cut winner. However, with the support that the other two candidates are getting, Romney will have to make sure that he is doing everything he can to make sure he wins in Florida in order of salvaging any chance of being elected as the Republican candidate. On the other hand, I also feel that the rising popularity of Gingrich and Santorum is only temporary and only caused to raise the competition. Romney, until this point, has had a steady amount of supporters who seem to be loyal because of his consistency before these primaries. I feel that these loyal supporters will in the end help him overcome his other candidates. The GOP struggle benefits Obama significantly. Since the Republican candidates are now fighting against each other in order to receive a seat in the general election, it leaves open a big opportunity for Obama to run ads that will help his campaign instead of focusing on putting out negative ads because the Republican candidates have already relieved him of this job. If the Republicans want any hope of having a Republican for president, then they need to quickly decide whether to put their differences aside and put all of their support into one candidate. However, because of their ego, this most likely won't happen.
Yes, I do believe that Romney will regain momentum in Florida. If the Republican party is honestly worried about Newt getting the nomination, they will go out and vote for Romney. If the Republican party doesn't want Obama to win re-election, then they will vote for Romney. I think that since the Republican is most concerned with those two issues, they will vote for Romney. Therefore, he will regain momentum. I think that this race is solely between Newt and Romney. They are the only plausible candidates. No one is actually in the running other than Rick Santorum, who no one knows, and Ron Paul, who is a crazy person. Therefore, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are the only reasonable candidates. The longer the GOP struggles to name a candidate, the less time they have to campaign. They are basically helping Obama out which is not cool. I think the GOP needs to get their act together so they can start working on pummeling Obama to the ground!
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